Leave voting regions to suffer most from Brexit trade decline

As you may be aware, we have been trying to obtain access to the Brexit impact assessments via an FOI request but have not had much luck.

Luckily though, many institutions have published reports which we have been able to cover.

This week, the University of Birmingham released a study looking at regional shares of local GDP exposed to Brexit in the UK and the EU.

They found that:

almost all UK regions are systematically more vulnerable to Brexit than regions in any other country. Due to their longstanding trade integration with the UK, Irish regions have levels of Brexit exposure, which are similar to those of the UK regions with the lowest levels of exposure, namely London and northern parts of Scotland.

Meanwhile, the other most risk-exposed EU regions are all in southern Germany, with levels of risk which are typically half that of any UK or Irish region, and one third of that displayed by many UK regions. There is also a very noticeable economic geography logic to the levels of exposure with north-western European regions typically being the most exposed to Brexit, while regions in southern and eastern Europe are barely affected at all by Brexit, at least in terms of the trade linkages. Gravity thus plays its well-known role.

Overall, the UK is far more exposed to Brexit risks than the rest of the EU.

According to the report, the EU holds all the cards in the upcoming trade talks because:

The UK’s national level of Brexit exposure is 12.2 per cent of UK GDP and 11.3 per cent of UK labour income. In contrast, the rest of EU in aggregate face an exposure to Brexit, which is only 2.64 per cent of their combined GDP and 2.62 per cent of their combined labour income. In other words, the Brexit trade-related exposure of the UK economy is 4.6 times greater than that of the rest of the EU

Not only is the UK much more vulnerable to reduced trade after Brexit but many of the regions in the UK that voted for Brexit will be the most exposed.

As you can see from this map, Leave strongholds such as the Midlands and the North of England are more in jeopardy if there is a decline in trade with the EU than Remain voting London.

This is simply because London is more globalised and relies less on trade with the EU whereas many of the Brexit voting regions rely heavily on it.

brexit voting areas worst hit

Regional shares of local GDP exposed to Brexit

So, yet again, another report has been produced that highlights why the Brexit impact assessments have not been made public.

Quite simply, Brexit is the worst idea in history and, no doubt the hidden impact assessments point this out.

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