UKGOV Brexit report released, including Scottish impact
The actual document containing the Government’s Brexit analysis has just been released.
Below is a screenshot of the pertinent part regarding Scotland. It details the economic hit we will experience in the three likely Brexit scenarios. Some have argued that this document does not take into account the super-duper bespoke pie-in-the-sky deal that Theresa May is going to negotiate. However, we know this deal isn’t possible. Looking at the EU negotiating guidelines, a Canada style FTA is the most likely scenario if both sides stick to their red lines.
A Canada type deal would see the Scottish economy grow 6 percent slower over a 15 year period according to the report. A Norway type deal, which the UK Government has ruled out, would limit the damage to two percent. And a no-deal Brexit would take the figure up to ten percent.