What should the SNP do now with regards to indyref2? | Autonomy Scotland

What should the SNP do now with regards to indyref2?


The argument against pursuing indyref2 is a poor one and as we discussed before, is an insult to democracy.

It is either based on opinion polls like this one.

Or it’s based on strained reasoning that goes a bit like this:

60 percent of people voted for parties that were against a second independence referendum.

I’m sorry but that is not how any democracy works.

A system based on opinion polls and divination of what the electorate meant when they voted for a particular party would be chaos. We vote and by doing so we choose the people who we want to represent us for the next term. In Scotland at local, Holyrood and now again at Westminster, we have chosen the SNP. They have the right to govern how they see fit.

The only good reasons to retract the request for indyref2 would be if the SNP thought it was not in the public interest or it was unwinnable.

Thing is, none of this really matters in a tactical sense though, because regardless of whether you think proceeding with indyref2 is a good idea or not;

  • The Tories are going to reject a second indyref regardless of what the SNP do.
  • So the SNP can either:
    • Put the idea on the back-burner themselves  or,
    • Let the Tories, backed by the DUP, reject it.
  • The second option is a more powerful one for two reasons.
    • Backing down looks weak and would alienate a lot of SNP support.
    • The rejection by the Tories and DUP can be banked and used in the long game.
  • Indyref2 at the end of the Brexit talks will come to be seen as the sensible option. Why reject it when you can get your opponents to reject it for you?

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  • When indyref2 is rejected by the Tories the SNP could go ahead and hold an unofficial election themselves.
  • This is a viable option but I would say it would be better to kick up a fuss about the democratic outrage of the rejection. They could then say that, as they have a mandate, they will hold a referendum if and when the Tory Brexit starts to damage Scotland.
  • Then the SNP only need do three things.
    • They need to win support back and they can do this in two main ways.
      • They can win back support of independence supporters that are pro Brexit by seriously considering joining EFTA instead of the EU.
      • They can win back support of progressives by actually delivering some of the radical policies they have talked about but not followed through on. Stronger local government, council tax reform and real land reform would be a start.
    • They need to spend a lot of time solving the problems that beset the previous independence campaign.
      • We need strong answers to economic questions on subjects like currency, pensions and trade.
      • We need a strong vision of what an independent Scotland within the single market will look and feel like and how that will contrast to the Tory post-Brexit UK.
    • The last thing they need to do is just wait.

Reddit comment summing up the current situation. Click for source.

 

  • If the majority of the experts are correct then a Tory negotiated Brexit will be a disaster.
  • We are likely to see continued austerity, wage deflation, decreased economic confidence, a falling pound, tariffs and non-tariff barriers, consumers paying a lot more for imported goods. We will have large scale skill shortages due to falling migration and the cost of paying for pensions and essential services will rise. Powers will be centralised, the cost of air travel will be prohibitive, Northern Ireland will be destabilised, Human Rights will be diminished, freedom of expression will be curtailed, the NHS will be gradually privatised and austerity will continue to grow.
  • If, as is reasonable to presume, many come to see Brexit as a massive mistake, that would be the time to hold another referendum.
    • The SNP can then say that they tried to give people the option to prevent the worst of Brexit but it was vetoed by the Tories and the DUP.
    • They can say that now, for the sake of the country they are going to ignore that veto.
    • They can say that they have been working behind the scenes to provide answers to the problems caused by a Tory Brexit.
    • They can offer a vision of independence within the Single Market that is fully thought through and offers people hope from the realities of a Hard Brexit.

That’s what I would like to see them do. Let us know below what you think the SNP should do now!

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Robert GallowayautonomyscotlandDobber Recent comment authors

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Dobber
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Dobber

The SNP should continue to pursue the policies laid out in the manifesto they were elected on. Namely; to seek to hold a second independence referendum if, there were a significant material change in circumstances, such as, being taken out of the EU against our will. As that is now the case, the SNP must seek such a referendum, regardless of baseless Unionist propaganda that, tries to sell us an SNP victory as a defeat, and a Unionist defeat as a victory. We have a solid democratic mandate, and, a duty to our supporters, so, lets not grace Unionist propaganda… Read more »

autonomyscotland
Admin

I think they should be wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t. This period of consideration is ominous.

Robert Galloway
Member

Although I am inpatient,I think it better to wait to see what these idiots come back with,and do not waste time but declare our intentions A.S.A.P or immediately.Their is a mandate in place at least twice over it should be inclusive of all independence supporters and led by the Scottish Government.We can expect dirty tricks,lies and a whole lot more be prepared in every way possible.Look at the ways other countries succeeded,Czechoslovakia,Unification of Germany,Sweden,Norway and others ,in E.U. Everything ready to go currency,banking,taking over all amenities,oil,gas and whisky revenues and any back ups that might be needed and helpful,population requirements,training… Read more »

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